The Top 3 Housing Market Questions on Your Mind?
In the current state of the housing market, there is considerable confusion. Conversations with friends, news reports, and social media posts often present conflicting information. If you're considering a move, this can lead to numerous lingering questions. This is where a reliable local real estate agent becomes invaluable.
Explore the top three questions people have about today's housing market and find data-backed answers to guide you.
1. What’s Next for Mortgage Rates?
Mortgage rates have reached higher levels compared to recent years, impacting the affordability of homes for potential buyers. The uncertainty surrounding future mortgage rates is a common concern for many. While it's challenging to provide a definitive answer, historical trends offer some insights.
Mortgage rates and inflation share a longstanding correlation. When inflation rates are high, mortgage rates tend to rise accordingly. In the past year, inflation has been on the rise, leading to an increase in mortgage rates. However, as inflation begins to ease, the Federal Reserve has opted to pause federal funds rate hikes. Consequently, many experts anticipate a potential decline in mortgage rates in the near future.
There have been subtle indications of somewhat lower mortgage rates in recent weeks, albeit with notable volatility, a trend that may persist into the coming year. While some ongoing fluctuations are anticipated, the outlook suggests a potential downward trend in 2024. As noted by Aziz Sunderji, Strategist at Home Economics:
“The bottom line is that interest rates are likely to be lower-perhaps even lower than many optimists think - in the weeks and months to come.”
2. Where Are Home Prices Headed?
While there were concerns that home prices might experience a significant downturn this year, the data indicates that this did not occur. In fact, home prices are on the rise across most of the nation. Experts predict that this upward trend will persist, albeit at a more gradual pace, which is considered a healthier and more typical pattern for the housing market.
To underscore the confidence in this sustained appreciation, consider the insights from the Home Price Expectation Survey conducted by Pulsenomics. This survey involves a national panel comprising over 100 economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists. As depicted in the graph below, there is a consensus that home prices will continue to climb not only next year but also in the years to come.
3. Is a Recession Around the Corner?
Although discussions about a possible recession have been prevalent in recent years, there is encouraging news on that front.
Regularly polling experts on this matter, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) found that a year ago, the majority of experts anticipated a recession by this point. However, as experts assess current leading indicators, they are revising their views, suggesting that the likelihood of a recession is diminishing. The latest findings reveal a growing consensus among experts that we are not on track for another recession, as depicted in the chart below:
This is big news for the housing market. And while the 48% to 52% split may seem close to half and half, the key thing to focus on is that the majority of these experts think we’ve avoided a recession already.
The key message here is that the data indicates no reason for alarm; rather, there are more optimistic signals. Feel free to reach out, and we can discuss any housing market questions you may have as we approach the new year.